Looks like Putin is going to declare war

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tacnet
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Looks like Putin is going to declare war

#1

Post by tacnet » September 20th, 2022, 8:20 pm

Just seen on the news that Russia is planning to hold referendums in several Ukraine areas on whether or not they want to be part of Russia

Nobody believes the vote will be free or fair but once they become part of Russia, any attacks on them means that he can legally declare war on Ukraine.

Up till now he's just called it a "special military operation" but by declaring war, he would be able to call up MILLIONS of troops and flood them into Ukraine. Ukraine would be swamped

Very worrying escalation https://www.nytimes.com/live/2022/09/20 ... russia-war



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#2

Post by TheButcher » September 20th, 2022, 8:52 pm

I don’t see war being declared to be honest, maybe ratchet up the terminology a notch higher but not declare war.

I think when Odesa falls to the Russians this thing will be over, from what I see on the BBC map when they talk about it the south seems to be what he is after. The east aka the Donbass is a foregone conclusion. Basically make Ukraine a landlocked country with no access to the Black Sea.

Another thing I see happening is Poland taking the western part of Ukraine.

For the record I am not for war whatever terminology is used, there is no good from seeing people die. I can not remember who said this (paraphrasing). War is a result of diplomacy failing.



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#3

Post by tacnet » September 20th, 2022, 10:35 pm

We will have to agree to disagree there lol

From what I see, Putin is being pushed back on a big scale. Both China and India have expressed concerns at how the war is going and his only option now is to declare war and throw another 100,000 or so troops in

I dont think he will ever get to Odessa. Three quarters of the world's grain comes through that port and there's no way the west could allow him to have control of the world's grain supply aswell as the oil and gas.

Think of all the world leaders that have publicly stated that "Putin must fail" ?. They are not now going to throw their hands up and let him win.

My guess is that if Europe and the west can get through the next 4 to 6 months then Russia's economy will collapse. He's already spending billions in foreign currency to prop up the ruble. Most of Europe will have stopped buying Russian gas by then too so he will have lost that income and the sanctions will be starting to bite

Both China and India are too reliant on western consumers to risk sanctions by supplying him weapons etc.

Remember there's 150 million or so Russians on one side and around 2.5 billion people on the other. There's no way the west will let him win

No i think the west will simply out spend him and he will either be kicked out of office or end up like North Korea, an isolated state



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#4

Post by tacnet » September 20th, 2022, 11:54 pm

Think of it this way, the West has to either win this or admit that everything they said was wrong and the billions of dollars they've already spent in Ukraine was all for nothing.

They sure as hell are not going to do the latter



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#5

Post by TheButcher » September 21st, 2022, 3:14 am

tacnet wrote:
September 20th, 2022, 11:54 pm
Think of it this way, the West has to either win this or admit that everything they said was wrong and the billions of dollars they've already spent in Ukraine was all for nothing.

They sure as hell are not going to do the latter
By the same token Putin needs to win or he’s going to be history, and no leader wants to be kicked out of office for losing a war. I think I said this before in another thread, both sides need an off-ramp to end this thing while saving face.



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#6

Post by NSWDave » September 21st, 2022, 6:31 am

Life since late 2019 has not been the same,we went through the pandemic and now there is a real possibility of WW3 with Ukraine and Taiwan in play. What is going on let's all try live together in peace.






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#7

Post by TheButcher » September 21st, 2022, 8:21 am

Just an update on my last post, I had not seen the news that Russia has partially mobilized 300,000 troops. I still do not see them calling out an all out war.

On my other point it was Tony Benn who said “All war represents a failure of diplomacy.”

Let's hope cooler heads prevail and the 2 sides sit down work out a mutually acceptable peace treaty. They ave to live next to each other no matter what, why not get along with your neighbour insetda of fighting all the time. My 2 cents.



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#8

Post by tacnet » September 21st, 2022, 6:28 pm

TheButcher wrote:
September 21st, 2022, 8:21 am
Just an update on my last post, I had not seen the news that Russia has partially mobilized 300,000 troops. I still do not see them calling out an all out war.

On my other point it was Tony Benn who said “All war represents a failure of diplomacy.”

Let's hope cooler heads prevail and the 2 sides sit down work out a mutually acceptable peace treaty. They ave to live next to each other no matter what, why not get along with your neighbour insetda of fighting all the time. My 2 cents.
He's called up 300,000 troops but he doesnt have the equipment to arm them properly. This is an act of desperation and the protests in Russia are proof that he is loosing his grip

I agree, nobody wants to see this war continue but I dont see how Ukraine can negotiate with someone who says you have no right to exist as a country ??

Lets face it, if someone had invaded and occupied large parts of your country, had threatened nuclear war and killed thousands of your people, would you be willing to sit down and negotiate with them ??? I doubt it very much.



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#9

Post by BrasSmonkey » September 21st, 2022, 7:11 pm

putin aint gone do shit!



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#10

Post by donnie » September 21st, 2022, 7:30 pm

If they do not get us involved it's okay with me,let them fight their own war leave us alone.






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#11

Post by misterporn » September 21st, 2022, 8:05 pm

BrasSmonkey wrote:
September 21st, 2022, 7:11 pm
putin aint gone do shit!



What if he does






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#12

Post by BrasSmonkey » September 21st, 2022, 8:13 pm

misterporn wrote:
September 21st, 2022, 8:05 pm
BrasSmonkey wrote:
September 21st, 2022, 7:11 pm
putin aint gone do shit!



What if he does
what if they go back to the moon? (they never been)



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#13

Post by AndyR » September 21st, 2022, 10:34 pm

Well for me Putin was a huge let down well his armed forces where if the media is anything to belive lol... many years ago in a civilian enviroment (cut a long story short) I happened upon a spetsnaz guy on holiday and we both had a major problem with the locals (a common enemy) we went back to back and kicked the living shit out of all the fuckers they could through at us :-)... after of course we made a quick exit and whent for a meal and a drink... the spetsnaz guy said ok then you must be special forces same as me ? as noboby else could deal with that alongside me... I laughed and said NO mate I am just a bog standard British Infantyman RRF we are highly trained we got tired of being just cannon fodder LOL this cannon fodder if you cut my arm off I will pick it up and beat you to fucking death with it hahaha..... he found that funny and we got along great.
So I think yeah Putin has tought them way too much maching bullshit and not enough combat skills, there are exceptions of course... but yeah I was fucking unimpressed that a bunch of farmers and schoolo kids fucked up the Ruski infantry lol



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#14

Post by greatpornlinks » September 22nd, 2022, 7:18 am

AndyR wrote:
September 21st, 2022, 10:34 pm
Well for me Putin was a huge let down well his armed forces where if the media is anything to belive lol... many years ago in a civilian enviroment (cut a long story short) I happened upon a spetsnaz guy on holiday and we both had a major problem with the locals (a common enemy) we went back to back and kicked the living shit out of all the fuckers they could through at us :-)... after of course we made a quick exit and whent for a meal and a drink... the spetsnaz guy said ok then you must be special forces same as me ? as noboby else could deal with that alongside me... I laughed and said NO mate I am just a bog standard British Infantyman RRF we are highly trained we got tired of being just cannon fodder LOL this cannon fodder if you cut my arm off I will pick it up and beat you to fucking death with it hahaha..... he found that funny and we got along great.
So I think yeah Putin has tought them way too much maching bullshit and not enough combat skills, there are exceptions of course... but yeah I was fucking unimpressed that a bunch of farmers and schoolo kids fucked up the Ruski infantry lol
Interesting story andy the one thing I am not certain about is how accurate all the reporting is.






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#15

Post by tacnet » September 22nd, 2022, 11:17 am

If you think about it, suggesting that Ukraine should negotiate peace with Russia is like saying that Poland should have negotiated with Hitler and given him half their country

There's no difference here. They are both dictatorships using force to expand their territory by invading a democratic neighbour

If Putin comes out of this with one inch of Ukranian territory then no democracy is safe



Looks like Putin is going to declare war

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